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Vacant homes, fewer people. This is Vegas?
Sat, Nov 15, 2008 (2 a.m.)
Sun Archives
- Measuring population in moving boxes (8-4-2008)
- Local downturn a hiccup or augur of a bleak future? (7-20-2008)
For all the numbers that define Clark County and its economic woes, this one may be the most startling:
Clark County, for years the fastest-growing area in the country, has shrunk in population by at least one measure: the growing number of empty residences.
The county’s most recent population estimate, in July, shows a loss of about 10,000 people since its last estimate, in July 2007.
The estimate is based on the number of vacant homes, condos and apartments in the county. Because residents displaced by foreclosures might have moved in with others, the population drop may not be as dramatic as estimated.
Undisputed, however, is the exodus from Clark County of workers in the homebuilding industry over the past
1 1/2 years.
The last major population drop occurred in the late 1920s, when the mining industry soured.
“It is a real important reflection of the breadth and depth of the recession we are seeing today,” said John Restrepo, an economist and principal at Restrepo Consulting Group. “Clark County has been one of the fastest-growing counties in the country for 20 years, and now we are not seeing growth.”
Clark County estimates this year’s population on July 1 was 1,986,146, down from 1,996,542 on July 1, 2007.
The decline came after 10 straight years of population increases averaging more than 60,000 and after Clark County officials boasted last fall that the county’s population had surpassed 2 million.
The Las Vegas metropolitan area was the fastest growing, by percentage, in the United States during the 1990s, and ranked fifth fastest growing from 2000 to 2005.
A reversal of the longtime growth trend is yet another shock to the foundation of the Las Vegas economy, analysts said.
Experts have long thought the lure of jobs fueled by the regular addition of giant Strip resorts and increasingly luxurious casinos in the locals market would ensure continuous growth.
In the past year, Palazzo opened on the Strip and the Eastside Cannery opened on Boulder Highway. Encore at Wynn Las Vegas is slated to open next month.
Yet the addition of more than 10,000 jobs was more than offset by the recession, sharply rising unemployment and a stagnant homebuilding industry.
For the number crunchers who have spent years studying the rapid rate of Clark County population growth, the decline is a jolt to the system.
“It tells us that we are much more connected to the national economy than people have thought in the past,” said Jon Wardlaw, the county assistant planning manager and demographer.
Clark County calculates its population based on the number of households and their occupancy rate. Wardlaw said the housing vacancy rate rose from 4.5 percent to 7 percent.
“There are more houses and apartments with nobody in them,” Wardlaw said. “They are either moving away or in with relatives, or combining households with someone.”
State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle said he is poring over data to come up with his own population estimate for Clark County.
Jeremy Aguero, a principal at Applied Analysis, said the numbers may not so much suggest the county’s population is shrinking as much as indicate a correction of previous overestimates.
“I don’t think we have lost population as much as we didn’t have as much as we thought we did in 2006 and 2007,” Aguero said.
Experts said the biggest culprit for any drop in population is the loss of about 10,000 construction jobs in the past year. Casinos have also been trimming jobs. The jobless rate rose to 7.3 percent in September.
A version of this story appeared in this week’s In Business Las Vegas, a sister publication of the Sun.
Discussion: 20 comments so far…
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It's over folks!!
Given that scenario, why on Gods green earth would anyone want to live in such a politically dysfunctional, socially corrupt, socially dysfunctional, politically corrupt, governmentally inefficient, water-starved, corporate controlled, pretentious, educationally challenged, addiction-filled, misguided, politically ignorant, money-grubbing, dishonest, nepotistic, judgemental, culturally illiterate, superficial, economically fragile, ethnically fragmented, value inverted, culturally shallow, negative, over-invested in, mass-transitless, misunderstood, unsophisticated, futureless, barren wasteland of a city?
Maybe for the good things about Las Vegas?
Construction jobs down would make sense with slowing housing. But I really think we are close to the bottom in housing, when you consider all the aid, from Citigroup and others. In addition to Citi, The federal gov't FHA, many states, JPMorgan Chase, Wachovia, and Bank of America/Countrywide have committed to helping over 2 million homeowners between them keep their homes. I just don't understand why more people in Vegas do not take advantage of all the help. It will help the economy and Vegas. I found more info on the programs here.
http://www.needhelppayingbills.com
OF course this article does not break down the large number of illegal workers who have simply headed back to Mexico.
The same dynamics occured in Phoenix...and the liberals tried to misrepresent the number there also./
Couldn't have written a better description, sunline.
After ten years, I'm leaving. Six more weeks.
let's build a FOOTBALL stadium!
that will solve all our problems!
a lot of people that came here in the boom years were in their 20s and early 30s. now they want to raise a family and the schools here are horrible. why WOULD someone live here?
So happy to see all of these positive statements. Most of them could be made about almost all large cities. Personally, I grabbed some vinegar to sweeten my coffee and personality after reading about how horrible Las Vegas is. Hey, I am in for the time being - as a retiree I may move on just to have a new experience. For now there is lots of adventure here and some great programs at da university. Go Rebels, and go get happy to the rest of you!
Unfortunately a lot of people who need the help from losing their home don't seem to 'qualify' for any kind of assistance program generated with the bailout funds - just more bs and another waste of taxpayers dollars - money going to fund AIG parties and CEO bonuses - that's all it was.
The Las Vegas Economy may be dying on the vine, but one thing is for sure... Democracy is DEAD.
The Reid Monarchy has single-handedly destroyed Las Vegas as we know it. The "bought and paid for" Policy of "Politics as Usual" that Pinky has practiced since he was merely referred to as Cleanface, has now been handed down like and old pair of sneakers to his punk kid RORY. Pinky Jr.
Since when did Las Vegas and the Wild Wild West become the launching pad for the careers of a litter of Nerds called "Sons of Pinky?" Who died and made them Kings? This is beyond ridiculous.
Turn on channel 4 sometime and watch this "dweeb" pretend he's important. To say that the PEOPLE of Las Vegas (Clark County) get a fair shake in front of this "tribunal" is an absolute farce. I've never seen a more arrogant gathering of paid off puppets in my life.
The last time around, the F.B.I. came in and hit the plunger and flushed out a few of the Rookie Commissioners.
Rory must have been hiding behind ones of the convicted floaters to escape that attempt to clean up this Toilet of a Town. Now he sits Front and Center. Pinky Jr.
Our current savior. What a chip off the old Urinal Mint.
Maybe that's where Pinky's name came from. That Pink thing that's supposed to cover up the stench at the bottom of the Toilet. Aim carefully next time you see one of him.
Casinos and Developers own this Commission. The reason this Town is in the current situation that it's in today is for one reason. Uncontrolled Growth. Period.
Why would our Commissioners let the Casinos and Developers do what ever the hell they want, with out stepping in at some point to show them who runs this Town? There is only one answer. GREED.
Pinky is the purveyor of that GREED. Career Politicians have NO CHOICE. It's how they get through the day. Remember when Pinky branched out and made Dario Herrera his "Poster Boy" for the "Future of Nevada?" Where is Dario now Pinky?
I heard he's in vacation working on his "Oratory Skills. He's giving instead of getting. Pinky taught him everything he knows. That must be a hard one to swallow. Pinky.
In most Cities across our Great Country, there are checks and balances in place to recognize and prosecute this type of political arrogance. At what point do WE demand answers from the people who hold that key? This Reid Clan is killing this Town. Somehow that needs to stop. Immediately>
Pinky Dog-ee dog senior who bought him some land and sold some land. All we're missing is a halo and some wings. "Greed" is not supposed to be the defenition of a politition.Our Government should not think that we don't know whats going on. The majority of citizens are aware because we all are seeing and feeling what's going on. United we stand!
I'm not going to comment on the political issues touched on by some of the other posters. Partly because they're sour milk, partly because they're right on and I have nothing to add, but mostly because I don't understand alot of it. My grandmother used to blame Reagan for her apartment being so cold. Alot of these comments seem to use the same logic.
I lived in Vegas for one year, and left a few weeks ago to get back to the east coast. Crappy weather, but steadier income. In that year I paid alot of attention to what was going on in the valley, and as steamed as some of you are at the politicos, I think the bigger issues are being missed.
Las Vegas has, and always will be, a recreation destination. There are no factories or major technology companies here. It's predominantly the gaming business, or services that cater to the people in the gaming business. There is no "substance" here to hang your hat on. There's not alot of white collar professions here, so the dynamics of the local economy are pretty different from most of the rest of the country. It's a pretty clear case of all the financial eggs of the valley being in one industry basket, and as that industry goes, so goes the valley. And that industry is very susceptible to the financial state of the rest of the world. Probably more so than most industries, which makes the underlying surprise around here even more astounding. It didn't take a rocket-surgeon to see this speedbump coming.
The people in power around here did two things that are coming back to haunt this town. They strained the ability of the middle-class consumer to vacation here, and they continued building and expanding like there was no possibility of it changing. Both recipes for eventual disaster by themselves, but combined they will really hit the valley here swift and hard. If people don't feel like getting on a plane and flying 4 or 5 hours, it really impacts the valley. And if people have other places they can go to get away that are alot closer and do alot of the same things that they can do in Vegas only significantly cheaper, well... the consumer will teach Vegas a real ugly lesson about who needs who more.
Say what you want about politics in Vegas... if people can't afford to, or don't want to, get here, it doesn't matter who's in charge here. All the important numbers will go down.
It sure seems to me like just a big nasty case of supply and demand... no matter who you voted for.
@Thread:
[[CITATION NEEDED]]
"I've never seen a more arrogant gathering of paid off puppets in my life."
Were you asleep for the previous Commission?
Come on; what you wrote could apply to virtually every government in every town, city, county, state, country, etc.
If "Democracy is dead", it wasn't Reid who killed it; it was gone before he was even an afterthought.
Why do these things ALWAYS turn into someone's sounding board against Dems or Reps? Can't you people think in color? Or is everything in your miserable lives simply black and white?
No wonder Las Vegas is in the state its in; you people are indicative of the population here - no creative thought, just binary thought.
Is anyone surprised?
Oh, Sunline, what a blind fool you are. Just anothher in a decades-long list of Vegas haters. Don't be so negative, just don't come here. We don't want you stinking up the place anyway.
I love Las Vegas, live here by choice, and own two successful business built on service and integrity. I have no problem with a slightly shrinking population. It will shake out some of the pretenders, and that is a good thing.
People like you thrive on hating Las Vegas... be proud as you spread your anonymous anger. Coward.
This is a good thing. This town needs to shrink or at least catch its breath. Arguing politics is good as well, but name calling and personal attacks are sad. Comment sections like this are a great place for people to be crazy without actually having to engage another person in constructive dialogue. That is an issue not only with Las Vegas but most of the country and probably just people in general.
I am a Las Vegas hater and proud of it. It has been my experience that if RPJ has even one business that is actual built on "service and integrity" it is 1) the only one in town, and/or 2) a service neither me nor any of my friends have ever needed.
This town is a hustle. There's nothing wrong with that. Suits some just fine. Not me.
Ryman, I'll buy you a first class plane ticket out of Las Vegas as long as you never come back. There are lots of businesses - and people - in Las Vegas that are built on service and integrity. It's too bad for you that you don't look in the right places, but it's great for Las Vegas when people like you leave. I am firmly convinced that it is the carpetbaggjng freeloaders who have come to my native city in the past 15 years who are the biggest problem. Good bye, y'all, and good riddance.
And, if you are such a proud Vegas hater (who would be proud of hate?), please, post your email and legal name for all to see. I'm sure you will.
I have lived in Las Vegas since 1960. Las Vegas has always been very good to me and my family. We have found it to be a dynamic place where we all could achieve our goals and dreams. And for the most part we all have by working hard ,creating businesses and jobs for others. When traveling to other parts of the country , I am always glad to come home to the Best City of Them All as Forrest Duke often said. I think if one is unhappy in life they will be unhappy no matter where they live.
If you don't like the way things are here but need or want to continue to live here, become part of the solution. Channel your energies to try and make things better instead just defining the negative problems.
Came across this as I was following up on something I had heard about the population declining. I'm a long time Las Vegan, been out and back a few times, most recently in 2004. Wow, what a mistake that was! What once was a nice place to live has become an unaffordable, overpopulated nightmare. Low paying jobs, abominable hours, employers that treat you like dirt because they are doing YOU a favor by giving you a job and not appreciating your value to the business. I should have never moved back here!
Speaking of business, RPJ mentions service and integrity. I'll be damned if I can find either of those qualities in most business here. Thankfully, I am getting out of here soon, and I shall never return. RPJ, if RyMan didn't take you up on your offer, I will!! It's been a long time since I flew first class!